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  • Senator Bernie Sanders

    Senator Bernie Sanders | Photo: Reuters

Published 22 March 2016

A series of sustained victories is needed from now on if Bernie Sanders is to win the Democratic nomination.

Nate Silver, the polling expert with a long history of accurate predictions, is convinced that Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is likely to win all eight upcoming states in the race to become the Democratic nominee.

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According to Silver, who works for the polling organization FiveThirtyEight, his prediction is based on a completely new formula: one that he developed as a result of the blow he took during the Michigan primaries.

Back then, Silver predicted that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a 99 percent chance of winning the Michigan primary, when Sanders ultimately won by 2 percent.

As a result, Silver decided to create an entirely different model and formula for predicting the primaries. This time his predictions assign higher importance to demographic factors, which he claims will allow him to predict the Michigan results much more accurately.

“Our demographic retrodiction for Michigan still has Clinton winning, but only barely by 3 percentage points, compared with the actual two point win for Sanders. Especially under the Democrats’ proportional allocation method, that’s a pretty minor difference,” explained Silver.

In the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, Silver successfully called the outcome in 49 of the 50 states and was named one of ''The World’s 100 Most Influential People'' by Time in 2009.

He explained that while Clinton tends to do better in more conservative regions, there aren’t many such regions left.

The next primaries are to take place in Arizona, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

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According to Silver, Bernie Sanders has a 75 percent chance of winning Idaho, 82 percent for Utah, 91 percent for Alaska and 81 percent and 85 percent for Hawaii and Washington respectively.

Silver believes that in Wisconsin Bernie has a 61 percent chance of winning and his chance in Wyoming is at 81 percent while he is not certain about Arizona, but currently rates Bernie's chance at around 40 percent.

Sanders overwhelmingly defeated his rival Hillary Clinton among U.S. voters living abroad Monday, including Israel where he picked up 9 of the 13 delegates at stake.

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