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  • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at election night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., Nov. 9, 2016

    U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at election night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., Nov. 9, 2016 | Photo: Reuters

Public opinion polls totally mis-forecast the U.S. election, as they did with the U.K. Brexit referendum vote.

This election was, as I continually have said since summer, a "rebellion of the working class" against the political elite of both Democrat and Republican parties. 

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Trump was able to mobilize and turnout his base of non-college educated working class (combined with the traditional, conservative rural, small town, small business base) more effectively than Hillary Clinton was able to turn out her base of suburbanites, minorities, college educated, and women.

More white, non-college workers switched from Democrat and voted Trump in 2016 than they switched and voted for Reagan in 1980.

Clinton Latinos turned out to vote significantly less than they did for Obama in 2012. Obama's Latino margin over Romney was 44 percent; Clinton's only 36 percent. Women over 45 went for Trump, and millennials turned out in less percent for Clinton in 2016 than for Obama in 2012.

The states that put Trump over the top were once heavily working class and Democratic Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, with Michigan and Minnesota likely to follow as well when the final vote is tallied. These are the states most severely impacted by free trade, offshoring of jobs, and declining living standards.

Public opinion polls totally mis-forecast the U.S. election, as they did with the U.K. Brexit referendum vote last June. They predicted a 3-5 percent vote in favor of Clinton. The popular vote was in favor of Trump.

Dr. Jack Rasmus, Ph.D Political Economy, teaches economics and politics at St. Mary’s College in California.


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